Outlook for Q2 2025
Group stainless steel deliveries in the second quarter are expected to increase by 0–10% compared to the first quarter, which was impacted by the strike in Finland.
Maintenance break in business area Ferrochrome is expected to have up to EUR -10 million impact on adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter. Also, opportunities for electricity optimization are more limited during the summer months.
With the current raw material prices, some raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains are forecasted to be realized in the second quarter.
Geopolitics and other significant uncertainties related to tariffs, might impact the global economy and consequently, Outokumpu's operating environment, deliveries, metal prices, and foreign exchange rates.
Guidance for Q2 2025
Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2025 is expected to be at a similar or higher level compared to the first quarter.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to various risks and uncertainties that may have an adverse impact on its business and operations. However, the company has taken prompt measures to manage and control these risks.
The development of the global economy, trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and the continued war in Ukraine all expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties within its operating environment. The main uncertainties in the global economy relate especially to the recent development within trade policies. The further adverse development could impact global trade flows, increase inflation and depress global growth. Possible further escalation of geopolitical tensions and conflicts could also increase disruptions in global supply chains. All these events could have an impact on Outokumpu's operating environment, business, and stainless steel demand.
The new U.S. administration’s pivot on trade policies has resulted in uncertainties in global trade flows. The U.S. has re-imposed Section 232 duties of 25% without exemptions on all countries including the EU. This could result in the diversion of the trade flows and increase import pressure into the EU. To mitigate this, the EU has imposed safeguard quotas on all countries with certain exemptions which will expire after June 2026. Outokumpu has geographically diversified assets and presence in both Europe and the U.S.
Outokumpu is exposed to energy price sensitivity owing to adverse geopolitical events. A severe and sudden disruption in the natural gas supply could affect the price or availability and impact Outokumpu’s operations in Europe.
Cyber security threats, trade disruptions with raw materials and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices, especially nickel. Volatile metal prices may impact Outokumpu’s result, among other financial risks.
Several legal proceedings are on-going among various parties related to the terminated Fennovoima nuclear power plant project. From the beginning, Outokumpu has denied and continues to deny all grounds for liability related to the terminated project, including the existence of any contractual relationship, obligation, or arbitration agreement between Outokumpu and any Rosatom company. There may be attempts in the future to join Outokumpu into legal disputes arising out of the terminated project.
On July 16, 2018, a class of plaintiffs, consisting of former and current Outokumpu Calvert mill employees, brought a suit against Outokumpu Stainless USA, LLC in the U.S. federal district court, alleging that the company failed to pay full wages for regular work and overtime work they performed. The district court entered a default judgment against Outokumpu in 2021 with respect to liability without Outokumpu having the opportunity to argue the merits of the allegations and subsequently found Outokumpu liable to the plaintiffs for approximately USD 13 million in the aggregate, plus attorney’s fees. Outokumpu unsuccessfully appealed the district court’s decision and is now awaiting the district court’s final decision, including the amount of the company’s liability. Outokumpu has a USD 18.9 million provision in respect of this matter.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2024 and the Notes to the 2024 Financial Statements.