Outlook for Q3 2025
Group stainless steel deliveries in the third quarter are expected to decrease by 5–15% compared to the second quarter, mainly in business area Europe, due to seasonality and market weakness. Meanwhile, pressure on realized stainless steel prices is expected to continue in Europe during the third quarter. Asian imports to Europe remain high compared to the low demand in the stainless steel market.
While in the U.S. we do not see signs of a demand recovery yet, the current tariffs are supporting more favorable market conditions for local producers.
Maintenance breaks in business area Europe are expected to have an impact of up to EUR -10 million on adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.
With the current raw material prices, some raw material-related inventory and metal derivative losses are forecasted to be realized in the third quarter.
Guidance for Q3 2025
Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be lower compared to the second quarter.
Short-term risks and uncertainties
Outokumpu is exposed to various risks and uncertainties that may have an adverse impact on its business and operations. However, the company has taken prompt measures to manage and control these risks.
The development of the global economy, trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and the continued war in Ukraine all expose Outokumpu to risks and uncertainties within its operating environment. The main uncertainties in the global economy relate especially to the recent development within trade policies. Continued adverse development could further disrupt global trade flows, increase inflation and depress global growth. Possible escalation of geopolitical tensions and conflicts could also increase disruptions in global supply chains. All these events could have an impact on Outokumpu's operating environment, business, and stainless steel demand.
The U.S. administration’s pivot on trade policies since the start of 2025 has resulted in uncertainties in global trade flows. In March, the U.S. re-imposed Section 232 duties of 25% on steel imports without exemptions for any country including the EU. In June, the US increased these duties from 25% to 50%. From a European point of view, this is likely to accelerate the diversion of Asian exports further to the EU with a generally lower level of tariffs. In Europe, more effective trade measures are needed to replace the current safeguard quotas which are expiring after June 2026 and to further improve the effectiveness of existing trade measures imposed on stainless steel. The consultation process for the new trade measures is ongoing until August 18, 2025. On July 27, 2025, the US and EU announced a trade agreement with 15% tariffs on most European exports to the US. However, steel and aluminum tariffs were not included and for now remain at 50%. Outokumpu has geographically diversified assets and a presence in both Europe and the U.S.
Outokumpu is exposed to energy price sensitivity owing to adverse geopolitical events. A severe and sudden disruption in the natural gas supply could affect the price or availability and impact Outokumpu’s operations in Europe.
Cyber security threats, trade disruptions with raw materials and dependencies on critical suppliers and machinery expose Outokumpu to the risk of operational disruption and additional costs.
The company remains exposed to risks related to volatile metal prices, especially nickel. Volatile metal prices may impact Outokumpu’s result, among other financial risks.
Several legal proceedings are on-going among various parties related to the terminated Fennovoima nuclear power plant project. From the beginning, Outokumpu has denied and continues to deny all grounds for liability related to the terminated project, including the existence of any contractual relationship, obligation, or arbitration agreement between Outokumpu and any Rosatom company. There may be attempts in the future to join Outokumpu into legal disputes arising out of the terminated project.
For more information on Outokumpu’s risks, please refer to the Annual Report for 2024 and the Notes to the 2024 Financial Statements.